Anyone remember when the Fed ‘revised’ Q2 job numbers from From “1,121,500 Down to 10,500. An Unbelievable 10,600% Difference.” An update.

Original thread here.

From the post:

Seems like this should be major news but I haven’t heard a peep about it. Considering one of the main arguments against recession has been the strong labor market shouldn’t this cause a rethink of that entire position? Also, how could they have possibly gotten the numbers this catastrophically wrong?

No, I don't think should cause a rethink of that entire position.

Update for Q3:

Comprehensive administrative data just released by the BLS (QCEW) shows the US adding more than 1.3M jobs in the 3rd Quater of 2022 on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis.

That's much stronger than current official Q3 CES estimates and suggests the Q2 QCEW weakness was a fluke.

Source

Visualized here and here.

From another Tweet:

In Q2 2022, job growth in the (survey-based) CES exceed job growth in QCEW by ~685k. Well, in Q3, job growth in QCEW exceeded job growth in CES by 746k, almost exactly offsetting the gap the previous quarter. (All figures not seasonally adjusted.)

Turns out the job market is strong, and the revisions can go the other way too.