Amazon – $10Tn in 10 Years?

Amazon – $10Tn in 10 Years?

1. Can Amazon reach $10Tn in 10 years?
   ⏺ ~$5Tn is more realistic which is still index beating with ~13% US$ IRR
   ⏺ $10Tn is unlikely even in stretch case though the exercise makes trillions of dollars look trivial
   ⏺ Even the mix of both higher growth and multiple is insufficient to reach $10Tn in 10 years
2. Current Valuation of $1.4Tn Sum of the Parts valuation basis reverse engineering and triangulation with comps
   ⏺ North America e-Commerce – 0.7x Rev.; Same as Walmart
   ⏺ International e-Commerce – 2.0x Rev.; Discount to Mercado Libre
   ⏺ AWS – 10.x Rev; Best in class SaaS

Disclaimer – No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above are purely my own. I am not a licensed securities dealer, broker, investment adviser or a research analyst licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Disclosure – I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy. I hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

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