There seems to be a correlation between fed pivots and the S&P bottoming some months later. I'm not just making this up but doing research I've ran across this graph several times.
And considering the Fed is likely to keep rates high for some time it could be quite some time a way. I invested my savings in July and thinking back I'm wondering if I will gain anything in the next 2 years and if short term t-bills would be better. It's risking that history will repeat and an optimal price point will present itself while maybe 5% returns.
From analyzing the charts it seems there maybe a excitement bump when the fed starts to cut rates, then the real damage will appear in the following years where the S&P will hit it's bottom price point (6-12 months after cuts start). And it real seems like the fed is going to have to break the economy to get inflation where they want. Inflation is very very sticky to the upside like home prices.
Is there any good reason why this scenario won't happen again. I get not trying to time things, especially when you've in it for the long term but this just looks like cause and effect.
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