Ok so the way I see things, buffett indicator is at nearly 200% (2 stdevs above average), yield curve is longest and deepest its been in a long time (possibly ever) and is on the precipice of uninverting (Fed cutting interest rates suggests this will happen soon). July SAHM was > 0.5 (indicative but not conclusive of recession for now – need 3 months).
Add to this geopolitical tensions in the middle east, Ukraine and China creating an environment that is at the very least fraught with risk and at worst very inflationary (and noting that war often follows recessions), and all I see is a pretty nasty, probably double dip recession on the horizon (by mid next year and probably earlier) with a stock market correction of 20-50%.
As you can tell – this is very bearish. What am I not seeing that bulls are? At a bare minimum I see T bills as the correct play given rates are still nice and if one wanted to really get them tendies then go all in on SQQQ…I know this sounds moronic but I also dont see what else is seriously investable at this point.
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