The Obesity Hype. A real hype that can blow portfolios more so than AI, look at the Viking stock trajectory. To figure out the science, is hard.
I am not saying buy this stock. I am saying, verify the below comparison with somebody. If the below is correct. You did your DD.
- Why $ALT over $VKTX?
- VKTX-2735 < PEMVI 2.4mg -- PEMVI superior quality of Weight Loss as measured by % FAT vs. % LEAN reduction (i.e. the KEY next-gen GLP1 metric)
- PEMVI broad CARDIOVASCULAR activity/potential
- PEMVI MOA includes Thermogenic/RMR component for LT use
- PEMVI body recomp. potential via class-leading lean muscle preservation
- PEMVI P3 titration/DR design to 'fix' outlier 48wk P2 (other PEMVI studies have shown tolerability on par with VK2735)
- VK2735 is faster WL which is better for BMI 40+ class 3 Obesity (smaller market), but not for avg. person — VK to compete with $LLY Zep,
- PEMVI is SIGNIFICANTLY differentiated high quality Next-gen GLP1 WL
- VKTX-2809 < PEMVI 1.8mg -- PEMVI rapid liver defatting in 6-12 wks (MASLD)
- PEMVI better 24wk anti-fibrotic potential vs 52wk VKTX
- PEMVI bypasses thyroid and is leading GLP1 liver MOA
- Why is Viking valued at 50$ and Altimmune at 6$?
- Viking Management simply is better at managing their stock. Viking has 900 million in cash, which they simply raised in a brilliant way.
- Altimmune had some set-backs in the past, which may make WS suspicious.
- Altimmune had a short report to endure, in which Kerrisdale stupidly rehashed old data, BUT Altimmune management FAILED at protecting the stock they let Jefferies do their bidding, plus their cash runway is not convincing. Their only response was a meaningless Tweet.
- Altimmune cash runway 150 million (or so), they stupidly ran the ATM at the absolute wrong moment.
- Altimmune is stupidly promising a partner for over a year now, and have not delivered.
- But why is Altimmune still the better stock?
- Pemvi as explained above, is smarter. Not Obesity, but curative fatty liver – COVERED BY INSURANCE ALREADY. Which pure obesity drugs are not, like Zepbound Wegovy
- Altimmune has FAST TRACK status. A nugget overseen by many
- Altimmune has a much much larger upside, at this moment. The odds of Viking crashing, extremely high. They are a Bio, they will face a setback. I believe if Viking was to be bought now, it would be at 100$ per share
- If Altimmune was to be bought now, 40$-75$ per share would be fair.
- If Altimmune announces a partner, it will likely be a 20$ 30$ stock within days.
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