Historically, the S&P 500 index has gone on to realize above-average and above-median returns during the six- and 12-month periods following unusually low readings for bullish sentiment and for the bull-bear spread. Unusually high bearish sentiment readings historically have also been followed by above-average and above-median six-month returns in the S&P 500.
Besides the downward volatility in the stock market, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, stock market volatility, inflation, interest rates, the coronavirus pandemic and politics are all influencing individual investors' outlook for stocks. Other factors include the economy and corporate earnings.
This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results:
- Bullish: 26.0%, up 1.6 percentage points
- Neutral: 23.6%, down 3.0 percentage points
- Bearish: 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points
Historical averages:
- Bullish: 38.0%
- Neutral: 31.5%
- Bearish: 30.5%
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