Prophets in a bull market, prophets in a bear market, can we stop with the hindsight cringelording?


I'm getting tired of these “can we now admit there was a bubble?” posts

It's still stupid to liken what's happening now to the dot.com bubbles. Relative valuations are nowhere close to what was happening back then. I'm not saying they weren't inflated, they were, but not even close to dot.com levels. Established tech companies are printing cash right now, back then they weren't.

There are many reasons for what's happening in the market right now, none of which could have been truly anticipated beforehand. The arrogance of the “I told you so” crowd is so cringe. Yes inflation has broadened and become more persistent. But who could have predicted the war, its effects on input prices, and more disruptions in China due to 0 covid policy?

It was a debate, transitory camp vs persistent camp and it seems the persistent camp have proven to be correct AFTER THE FACT. But both camps had valid points.

If inflation waned, and interest rates didn't have to be raised as high or as quick enough, and monetary policy remained accommodative, bull market could have continued. And we'd have “I told you so” in that scenario too

How about we get humble about the fact no one here knows shit about fuck and we go back to discussing good stocks to buy or shit stocks to short?

I'm loving GOOG at these levels and continue to accumulate, especially under 20 P/E.


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