Lets face it, Richard Branson is not good at building a manufacturing/engineering company. Its been almost 20 years since SpaceShipOne first flew, and yet VG only has one operational vehicle, VSS Unity, in 2022. Imagine SpaceX, which was founded in 2002, had only manufactured one Falcon 9 since its creation. How does anyone expect VG to be successful when they have clearly, and repeatedly shown, that they are horrible at manufacturing?
What is Richard Branson known for and good at? Branson is a genius when it comes to branding and providing luxurious experiences. This is his gift. He isn't Elon Musk, and he quite clearly isn't able to attract the engineering talent needed to scale manufacturing as is needed like Elon can.
So how can Branson and VG as a whole actually create a successful business model? Instead of being a space ship manufacturing company and a space tourism company, they need to become just a space tourism company. For an example, airlines like Delta, United, Southwest, etc. don't manufacture the planes they operate. They purchase or lease them from Boeing and Airbus. This wasn't always the case. Up until 1934, the manufacturing companies also provided airline services. Then, the US government forced these companies to separate these operations. You can read about it here: http://avstop.com/history/needregulations/act1934.htm.
Could we see this happen in the commercial space flight sector as well? Could SpaceX in the commercial space flight sector be the equivalent to what Boeing and Airbus are in the commercial air flight sector today? Could Virgin Galactic then be the equivalent to Delta airlines, United airlines, or its sister company, Virgin Atlantic?
How would this play out, exactly? SpaceX manufactures Starship, and Virgin Galactic purchases or leases them from SpaceX to then focus on providing the best, most luxurious experience to the passengers. This allows SpaceX to focus on their strength, being manufacturing, and VG to focus on theirs, branding and luxurious experiences.
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starship-rocket-update-flight-cost-million-2022-2
Starship estimated cost per trip to orbit / estimated number of passengers on a tourism trip = $10m / 20 = $500k + VG services fee = 750k – 1m per ticket. (number of passengers could vary significantly. Elon has stated that the capacity could be as high as 1k people if they were seated similar to coach in an aircraft. I state 20 because the purpose of VG is to provide a high quality experience, therefore they will have separate rooms for each guest, restaurants/bars, lounging areas to view the earth/listen to music, etc.
Would you rather pay 1m for a multi-day orbital experience, or 450k for 5 minutes of weightlessness?
VG's present business model dies the day Starship is brought to market.
So, what can VG do? Lease Starships from SpaceX, and redesign the interior compartments to be directly tailored for tourism. They could also build orbital hotels that are supplied with materials from the low cost of mass to orbit that Starship will provide.
This is the only way that VG has any sort of future. They can't compete with Starship, but they can change their business model to suit their strengths.
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