Discussed in recent LinkedIn post:
In January the bubble indicator showed that a) the US equity market as a whole was at the edge of a bubble but not in an extreme bubble (i.e., 70% of the way toward the highest bubble, which happened in late 1990s and late 1920s) and b) the emerging tech companies (e.g., Tesla and Roku) were clearly in an extreme bubble. I also noted that other bubbly behavior (e.g., SPACs, the IPO boom, the big pickup in options activity) financed by the unprecedented flood of liquidity post-COVID had found its way into the asset markets, making things bubbly. I showed which stocks were in bubbles and created an index of those stocks, which I call “bubble stocks.”
Since then, those bubble stocks popped. They declined by about a third over the last year—while the S&P 500 is about flat.
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