I have written various posts over the past 12 months and almost all of them have received various comments. In that time I have almost 10x my initial portfolio and I am extremely proud of that. I would say, 70% of these posts contained ruthlessly negative comments stating I was wrong and I have no idea what I am talking about. I think in these circumstances it is great to look back and evaluate your write-ups to determine which criticisms were valid and which . I will do every DD I have had for the past year. I will list the article title for each one with a description of performance. I will also give myself a grade.
Walmart Inc: A Michael Burry Investment (And the Ultimate Inflation Hedge)
Walmart has acted perfectly as an inflation hedge, as I said it would, staying roughly steady and actually increasing slightly compared to the -9% S&P 500 move since September. I had an intrinsic value of 170-175 which it hasn't met but I was really only expecting slight increases in price. I said “call options probably aren't the worst idea due to high liquidity”. I didn't buy any call options but I assume they haven't performed the best. Overall I am satisfied with my evaluation.
Grade: B
Inflationary Depression: This had 3 parts but it was a bet on TLT going down.
This has proven extremely correct with bond prices going down further than any time in history. Almost every hypothesis of what occurred has occurred, and I believe we are only towards the beginning of that downward cycle.
Grade: A
Roku: The Biggest Bubble in ARKK Investing
I got absolutely hammered for this one by comments on numerous subreddits and to say I have been right is an absolute understatement. I called roku out as having a value of roughly $25-$60 and it has since September gone from $310 to $90. This was an absolutely call out and I have had great satisfaction in seeing my puts skyrocket and going backing and commenting on my haters comments.
Grade: A+
The Treasury Yield is coming for Tech Companies
Overall, this was building on my roku analysis and explained that tech companies were going to feel the squeeze of reduced growth due to monetary supply tightening. I believe we are starting to see that but I think it is only the beginning as well.
Grade: A-
Rocket Lab (VACQ): The Real Route to the Moon (Just Kidding)
Overall my thesis was correct and VACQ was overvalued going from $10 to $7. I think my analysis was partially off though about understanding the the deal, as I thought shareholders were getting an awful deal. Overall I am going to chalk this one up to luck.
Grade: C
Overall, when in doubt ignore the haters and trust the facts. This is where you will make your money. Make appropriate risks for the confidence in your investment (Roku and TLT puts were my most confident and is where I focused my money). Value investing is important especially now in this climate. Find value and trust your gut. I believe in you and also be expecting my first write-up in a few months soon.
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