We just had another red week after the big six released their Q1 earnings, and I noticed people are saying stock prices are still high compared to pre-covid level, so I got curious and did a bit of research:
I used Portfolio Visualizer to get CAGR (20 years 1999-2019 and 10 years 2009-2019) and use it to calculate the non-covid prices:
*FB only has data from 2012.
| CAGR (2009-2019) | 01-Jan-2020 Price | Expected 2021 Price | Expected 2022 Price | Actual 2022 Price | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 14.56% | $321 | $368 | $422 | $412 | 97% |
| AAPL | 35.24% | $73 | $99 | $134 | $157 | 117% |
| AMZN | 38.52% | $1847 | $2559 | $3545 | $2485 | 70% |
| FB | 33.88% | $205 | $274 | $367 | $200 | 54% |
| GOOG | 21.73% | $1339 | $1630 | $1984 | $2282 | 114% |
| MSFT | 23.89% | $157 | $195 | $242 | $277 | 114% |
| NFLX | 48.21% | $323 | $479 | $710 | $190 | 26% |
| CAGR (1999-2019) | 01-Jan-2020 Price | Expected 2021 Price | Expected 2022 Price | Actual 2022 Price | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 6.61% | $321 | $343 | $365 | $412 | 112% |
| AAPL | 29.58% | $73 | $95 | $123 | $157 | 127% |
| AMZN | 18.37% | $1847 | $2187 | $2589 | $2485 | 96% |
| FB | 33.88% | $205 | $274 | $367 | $200 | 54% |
| GOOG | 19.19% | $1339 | $1596 | $1902 | $2282 | 119% |
| MSFT | 9.75% | $157 | $173 | $189 | $277 | 146% |
| NFLX | 42.49% | $323 | $461 | $656 | $190 | 28% |
Is this a fair guesstimate?
Leave a Reply