I started following Reddit during the GME squeeze. I never went all in I just found it fascinating. As many have noticed, over the last few months, rather than reddit favorite stocks getting pumped they seem to do the complete opposite. I don't know if it's coincidence or if there is a true pattern but it's amazing how wrong Reddit is nowadays.
Even more so, spending too much time here can convince you that “everyone agrees” that's the right move when a few days later “everyone agrees” it was an obvious poor move. There are many good examples of stocks that fell out of popularity (not just speculative companies, blue chips too). As they fell in price, the overwhelming consensus was to scoop it up. As they kept falling the overwhelming consensus is that they were “way overpriced.”
Right now, the overwhelming consensus is that the market will only continue to tank over the months ahead and just keep throwing money in all the way down. If there was “so much certainty” the right move would be to liquidate everything and buy many months from now. A month later, the sentiment could completely change and you'd have made a “very poor decision” trying to time the market.
I don't have a concise point here, I just want to point out that when it seems “all of Reddit” agrees on something related to stocks it's about the time to start betting against it. I'm not saying the market will go up or down from here next week. I'm just reminding everyone to not be so certain of anything just because there seems to be so much agreement. Panic sellers 4 weeks ago were geniuses in hindsight but panic selling is statistically a really bad move.
I'm down 7% on my cash portfolio over the last 12 months. If I went by what I have read here the last few days, I'd liquidate and repurchase when the market is down 30%+ from here. It takes effort to not give into such negative sentiment. I'm trying to avoid market news over the next few weeks and reddit needs to be grouped into that as well. Once you're emotions start churning, it's time to turn off the screen.
I was around for the 2008 crash and ever since I feel the market will crash every other month. Investing this way will get you nowhere. By nature we are more emotional about our losses than we are about our wins.
All that being said, maybe I'm just speaking to myself, and that's ok too.
Good luck out there!
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