Let's face it, Putin/Russia have already crossed the point of no return, even if the Ukraine conflict ends immediately, it's quite clear the sanctions won't be lifted and it would be an unacceptable political defeat for Putin. Considering Putin's willingness and resolve to risk it all, evidenced by pre-invasion nuclear wargame scenarios, the actual invasion, threatening nuclear reponse from West intervention, and heighten alert status (increasing risk of mistake, misunderstanding, or miscalculation), it's quite clear to me at least that Putin doesn't necessarily want to resort to nuclear if possible but is ready and willing.
Given conventional warfare has gone poorly for Russia, especially in the face of western military wep + financial + intelligence support + economic sanctions, Putin might be force to resort to tactical [low yield] nukes in Ukraine to essential force Ukraine to surrender and the west to back off. I don't think NATO will respond with nukes as 1) Ukraine isn't a NATO member, 2) If US wasn't willing to confront Russia in frontal combat at risk of escalation, it sure as hell won't be doing it after Russia demonstrate resolve and deploy actual nuke.
The world won't end but stocks globally will probably nose dive. That's a good time to buy. I'm confident because US & NATO will not confront Russia militarily because it have less resolve than Putin and more to lose. This can be seen from US putting off a regularly scheduled ICBM test to avoid escalation AFTER Russia escalated by putting nuclear force on alert or signaling that US will under no circumstances engage Russia militarily even before the invasion. That signal Putin have greater resolve and appetit for risk, and willing to go down if it comes down to it. The deterrence of MAD only works if your enemy lacks the resolve to go down with the world so NATO is forced to make the only rational choice left: backing off, because the alternative is assured mutual destruction and NATO lacks that resolve and appetit unless there is no choice. This won't come into play anyway because if USA won't risk nuclear confrontation for a non NATO Ukraine, it certainly won't engage in guaranteed nuclear confrontation with Russia. All that to say the world will survive but stocks should initially take a huge beating due to uncertainty.
Unfortunately, the worse Russia perform militarily in conventional warfare and the longer it drags on, the greater the chance this happen.
Thoughts?
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