After these last 2 days I am becoming more depressed about the market and the terrible state of the world.
War, inflation, fed WAY behind, supply shortages, covid, China lockdowns.
Folks sorry but I don't see ANYTHING getting better for 2022, 2023 and maybe further!
I am presently 30% cash. I've been investing for 2.3 years now and am still up about 30% in those 2 years from my one time lump sum 2.3 years ago.
Most of the time I have been anywhere from 10% to 70% cash so maybe my returns would've been higher but I was always worried about big downturns.
Well I fear NOW is very different!
I just can't stomach having my portfolio reduced to its principal amount and I'm deciding to call it quits while I'm still 15% per year up!
I will maybe leave around 30% in things like UNH, VTI, and maybe some energy and materials.
Other than that I want about 70% in cash for the short term.
I feel we are easily going to 4000 in May or sooner and might even hit 2000 by July.
I definitely don't see any all time highs in VTI this year. I say VTI will be under 4000 end of year and then 2000 in 2023.
The positive thing is that we Accumulators will be buying at LOW entries!
So after all the pain this summer and year I think… We will have great entry points!
I look at thr next 2 years as “the great cleansing” in the markets.
Shake out all the crap and start over again much lower!
Mohammed El-Erian today said something akin to what I'm saying. He said that “short term cash is a great strategy”!
I think he's 100% right this time! I used to dismiss his calls and was angry every time he came on during 2021, but I think he's right now!
He said “would you rather lose 20% in the markets or 8.5% to inflation?” Or similar.
The good thing is that the majority of my shares are long and I have a lot in my ROTH that I can sell off temporarily.
Timing the market? Yes. I feel it's definitely right this time though!
I mean seriously … Does ANYONE see anything getting better this year? Do you honestly see VTI going to 5000 this year?!
Sorry, but I don't!
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