When everybody starts saying that the market is going to tank as soon as the market starts raising rates, doesn't that mean they have sold or are selling their positions before that happens? If that is the case, when the fed does start raising rates (granted it isn't higher than expected) then short-term investors who would have sold already have.
This is a classic Keynesian beauty contest scenario, where people are trying to time the market. But what you should be doing is not trying to time the market as well but time the people trying to time the market. This could obviously go on forever (trying to time the people trying to time the people who are trying to time the market etc) but given how oversold certain stocks are compared to others, I don't believe it is in this situation.
Any thoughts on this idea. Am I missing something about how the market is increasingly baking in raising interest rates and inflation too much too early?
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