The coveted FOMC minutes release finally happened. What did we learn? Well not a whole lot new honestly. All we have learned is that clearly JPOW are hawkish and ready to do another 0.5bps hike in May at the next meeting. We also learned that the previously doveish members are now even hawkish.
SPY had a massive gap down at open today from 451 close all the way to 447.3 at open, which of course left a big gap on the daily chart. We know how SPY does not like to leave gaps too…
Intraday despite the massively red pre-market and first big red candle SPY traded within a pretty tight range hovering around 445.5 from 945am to 130pm. We saw some green start to take off right before the minutes dropped. They got a lot of people with the fake out (me included) with running it all the way to 448.5 before they dropped it like its hot to 444.2 immediately after. From there I saw some of the craziest intraday swings in such a short period of time that I have ever seen.
Spy dropped from 448.5 to a low of 443.47 (-1.1%, $5) rose to a high of 448.93 (+1.23%, $5.5) and then dipped to 445.32 (-0.8%, $3.5) and rose to 448 (+0.6%, $2.7) all within two hours of trading. That kind of volatility has not been seen in quite a long time. And being end of the day those who were brave enough to play 0dte made some incredible gains. I was able to recoup my losses plus 2x daily profit on one 0dte put on the initial -1.1% drop along with a few call plays to hit 6x daily profit in one day.
It is not surprising that we traded so close to 445.5 all day as that level is a key support of the Daily 20ema. It looked like when the minutes released we may see an aggressively red day and close below those key supports near the 440 level, however, 445 proved to be too strong to break through today. We also found out that 448 to 449 was major resistance too, as anytime we touched it end of day we immediately rejected down.
With a clear MACD sell and RSI trending downward now, favor to bears short term.
On the daily chart you can see we technically still have about an 89 cent gap from 448.93 to 449.82. Some could argue a gap this small is not important and will not be filled yet. One also may argue since its to the upside the push to close it now is not there as much as a gap below would be. Todays close and post market still have some bearish flavor to it. However, being able to close about the EMAs is fairly bullish.
Intraday tomorrow and overnight we need to see if 1. The gap will be filled up to 449.82 and 2. If the daily 20ema (447.05), daily 100ema (446.7) and daily 50ema (445.2) is going to hold as support intraday tomorrow with the daily 50ema being the key support. If we were to get a bullish push tomorrow the daily 8ema at 451.37 will now come in to play as possible resistance. Failure for bulls to break and close above that again would be bearish.
If the bears were to get another true bear day I would suspect they will try to close near the 200ema at 439.82. That being the final support bulls have to hold before we would see 410-420 again.
The weekly candle is now coming in fairly bearish after a doji last week would hint to me that we very well could see some red next week also. Key support for bulls to hold would be the weekly 8ema at 444.88 and the weekly 20ema at 446.43. A close back below those would all be confirm a dip next week back near the weekly 50ema of 435.07.
The VIX had yet another massive day today from its low of 21.24 to its highest point of 24.78 ranging 16.6% of movement. This is three massive movement days for VIX in a row, yet we have not really seen a massive 2%+/- day for SPY yet. I believe tomorrow or Friday it is coming.
The VIX key level to watch is 24.5 for the bears and 22 for the bulls. Now that the VIX is back ABOVE the average of 16.5 to 21.5 the bulls are in favor here as its is usually easier for VIX to unwind down with no new news than to go up.
Apple is looking similar to SPY on the daily chart with a clear MACD sell, and rsi at 53 trending down. Apple also has a pretty significant gap from 174.42 to 173.63 (0.45%, 0.79) on the daily chart.
Apple found support today at its daily 20ema which has not ben touched in over two weeks.
Apple bulls need a green day tomorrow to fill the gap up to a 174.42, however, they will need to break now resistance at the daily 8ema.
Apple bears will look for a close below the daily 20ema at 170.96. Bears will not need a very red day to accomplish this and their ultimate goal will be to get Apple below the daily 50ema at 168.44(only -2% from todays close) by end of the week. If bears can accomplish this 157 to 165 will be back in play. A close below the daily 100ema of 165.31 (-3.8% from close) while a very tough chore to accomplish in two days, it is not out of possibility for Apple depending how markets react.
The questions going into tomorrow is now that the markets have the full minutes from FOMC and nothing news wise until April 12th with the next CPI data…. Which I fully expect to be awful and another emergency/ surprise rate hike. With the markets now seeing the true hawkish fed and the new info about the balance sheets/ QT and rate hikes is the markets going to go back into full panic mode like January? Or will the markets too quickly price this in and return to full rally mode?
I will be looking at tomorrows close and more importantly Fridays close for that clue. We have key supports and resistance that will give us a clue going into next week.
I will be back on the sever all day tomorrow after taking the morning off for personal errands and I will also have a proper pre market post up around 9am tomorrow on the server for everyone.
10% challenge-
Today was a pretty good day for me.
As I said I was gone all morning and ended up not trading till about 1230. I entered some Apple and Spy puts around that time that I held till the first big green candle at 2pm and sold both for -50%. I then was able to grab a nice 80% 0dte play on the way down to recoup those loses + x2 my daily gains goalI had another 2dte -20% put that I played on the first recovery bounce when it faked us out red before ripping green (which is when I entered calls). I then played two different 2dte calls one for 40% and one for 30%. Overall being able to hit 6x my daily profit goal is incredible. I look to go into Thursday and Friday with low risk and being very conservative as I do not want to risk losing all these gains on silly plays. Friday if I have a good day tomorrow will look for a slightly higher risk on than usual though.
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