Core Economic Indicators
- Core PCE (Aug): +0.1%, slower inflation. (Neutral) (Low)
- Core Inflation: 3.2%, stable. (Neutral) (Low)
- PPI (July): +0.2%, minor inflation. (Neutral) (Low)
Labor Market
- Jobless Claims (Sept 21): 218K, stable. (Neutral) (Med)
- Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug): +142K, slower growth. (Bear) (Med)
- Unemployment (Aug): 4.2%, steady. (Neutral) (Low)
- JOLTs Openings (July): 7.673M, below expectations. (Bear) (High)
Manufacturing & Economic Indicators
- Durable Goods (Aug): 0.0%, weak demand. (Bear) (High)
- Empire Index: -4.7, contraction. (Bear) (High)
- Philly Fed Index: -7.0, economic softness. (Bear) (High)
- ISM PMI (Aug): 47.2, contraction. (Bear) (High)
Growth & Housing
- GDP QoQ (Q2): 3%, neutral growth. (Bull) (Med)
- Building Permits (Aug): 1.475M, future construction up. (Bull) (Med)
- Home Sales (Aug): 3.86M, below expectations. (Bear) (High)
Consumer Activity
- Personal Income (Aug): +0.2%, slow growth. (Neutral) (Low)
- Retail Sales (Aug): +0.1%, under expectations. (Bear) (Med)
Monetary Policy
- Fed Rate (Sept): 5.5%, on hold, risks persist. (Neutral) (High)
Key Risks
- Stronger Dollar: Hurts exports and raises borrowing costs. (Bear) (High)
- Yen Carry Trade: Weakens USD, bearish for U.S. markets. (Bear) (Med)
- Overleveraged Real Estate: Higher mortgage payments, lower demand, potential crash. (Bear) (High)
- Global Risks: Potential shocks from geopolitical or economic events. (Bear) (High)
Final Scores
- Bullish: 12
- Bearish: 53
- Neutral: 12
Overall Sentiment
Predominantly bearish due to weak labor data, manufacturing contraction, and rising interest rates, with some pockets of resilience in housing and growth.
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