I will briefly lay out the reasons BITCOIN/Crypto is a failed experiment, and has become a full fledged ponzi scheme.
Economics of Bitcoin are flawed. In a world where there are growing populations and growing consumption, a fixed supply money will not work.
In a bitcoin standard, you win by being born earlier, and lose by being born later. In a world where there is FINITE money and INFINITE growth of products, you run into a problem where the money becomes more scarce and valuable as time goes on. Simply being born in the future will lead to you slaving under those born before you for their scarce money. This problem only gets worse as time goes on.
With Fiat currency, this issue is solved through debasement, which most argue is bad, but gives a fair start to each human born in the future.
Investment and capitalism would fail in a bitcoin standard. There would be no reason to invest in new business as the most appropriate way to become rich would be hoard your Bitcoin.
FIAT fixes this, with the debasement of the currency you are encouraged to invest in the economy to earn a return greater than the debasement.
You would rarely want to spend your bitcoin because it would naturally buy you more in the future, therefore this would stall economic growth in favor of hoarding an unproductive “asset”
Fiat fixes this, by debasing the currency at moderate levels you encourage spending, as in the future things will cost more. This helps tremendously with the velocity of money and a functioning economy
The use cases for bitcoin have become eroded over the years. Most importantly, where it was once an unconfiscateable means of exchange that could be used by anyone, it has now become regulated by targeting the On and Off ramps (exchanges). This effectively makes bitcoin or any crypto a permissioned money no different than banks and FIAT. Sure you can send a transaction to someone, but what good is that if it becomes blacklisted and cannot be used?
This was the primary use case and promise for bitcoin, aside from speculation that it would become world currency and be worth more due to its fixed supply.
For the speculators!! – Each cycle has had significant diminishing returns, while having only slightly diminished losses in bear markets. This has led to a dilemma that there may not ever be a new all time high for bitcoin ever again, and it had barely reached one this cycle, it didnt even reach one this cycle if you consider inflation.
This became extremely notable in the last cycle where bitcoin bear market actually broke below the peak of the prior bull market for the first time ever. This is because of what i mentioned above, diminished returns but not so much diminished losses. If there is another cycle, which I doubt there will be due to people recognizing this dynamic, then we should from this point forward see lower highs and lower lows until ZERO.
Red flags include the rampant popularity of crypto as an investment, when the crowd agrees so strongly on something it is clearly late stage, and in some cases just wrong. The saying of “were so early” is just not true, and feels like a line passed down from the crypto overlords to be repeated by the blind sheep being led to the slaughter.
Youtube has speculators with big arrows pointing to 1 million to fulfill everyone's fantasies of getting rich quick.
It has become so normalized to say things such as “it is irresponsible to not have any crypto exposure”
Majority of people in crypto are new to investing and have formed a cult like behavior around the ponzi scheme.
Wall street became involved recently and it is being touted as a way to legitimize the crypto space. Nothing could be further from the truth. This does not legitimize anything. Wall street simply sees people willing to give them free money so they take the opportunity to financialize a product even if it is absolutely no good trash. We have seen this many times before. If wall street could sell you dogshit on fire in a bag wrapped in an ETF they absolutely would, oh wait they already are.
Con artists flock to the space more than anywhere else, as con artists see that everyone involved is an easy mark, considering they're already being scammed by buying into this garbage.
Anecdotal, but the majority of people who are in crypto now do not care about the anarcho capitalist founding principles and only care that the number goes up. They repeat the party line “21 million” “the halving” “normies are coming” “we are not poor we are pre rich” or my favorite “educate yourself” this one strikes home because I have known and been involved in crypto since 2016, educated myself enough to know that 2021 was the time to get out. Now they're holding the bags.
Celebrities' are making meme coins to fleese their followers, politicians are making coins to fleese their voter base, if you aren't doing the fleesing, you're the victim.
In conclusion, the scheme is coming to an end, the top is most likely already in, and if a ponzi scheme is no longer going to go up then it has only one place to go… Everyone's dreaming of getting rich, very similarly to the beanie baby frenzy. The majority of people involved will get wrecked. Take your money out of crypto and buy productive assets that are good for society. Stop trying to get rich quick it rarely ends well, and when it does, you lose it all by repeating the same bad behavior.
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