What would I do next Wednesday if I am in Jerome Powell’s position?


Would I do a 25 basis points or 50 basis points cut?

  1. I could go with a 25 bp cut as the most recent CPI is at 2.5% YOY, and unemployment is not terrible. Hoping the affect of starting a rate cut in September with subsequent two more 25 bp cuts before the end of the year be enough to get the inflationary rate down to 2% in the next 12 months and not lower. Lower inflation rate can risk into a deflation with the economy going to recession.
  2. Going with a 50 bp cut in September to jump start the economy with two more 25 bp cuts before the end of this year to avoid possible deflation and ensure the economy won't spiral into a recession.
  3. Going with a 25 bp cut in September and see how things go with the possibility of additional 50 bp and a 25 bp cuts before the end of the year, but that's take on some risk of the economy losing momentum by not having a 50 bp cut in September.

I would probably pick the second choice as I won't be sure how many more terms I would stay as the Fed Chairman and won't want to risk the economy to go into a recession and leaving my legacy in ruins.

But that's my opinion, and I am not Jerome Powell. Either way, a rate cut is almost definitely in the house and the choice He/Fed made really depends on how confident and how much risk He/Fed are willing to take.


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