Potential bear scenario on $LLY $NVO and other pharma


I have been very bullish on LLY for a while due to the significant improvements I observed in the supply of GLP-1 drugs. Q2 earnings report has been very informative on this, and helped pricing in the supply improvements and the updated revenue projections.

I watched Harris&Biden speech yesterday where they spent a lot of time criticizing the big pharma for their pricing practices.

transcript: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/08/15/remarks-by-president-biden-and-vice-president-harris-on-the-progress-they-are-making-to-lower-costs-for-the-american-people-largo-md/

The whole thing was about communicating their track record on fighting big pharma, and committing to doubling down on this with Harris&Waltz. Seems like this is going to be a major piece of her campaign. One of the major messages was how Biden&Harris passed the legislation that allowed reducing the prices for 15 medicines starting from January 2026.

Biden: “And we’re just getting started.  Under the law I signed,  Medicare can negotiate lower prices for another 15 drugs next year, 15 the following, and 20 after that until every drug is covered.  (Applause.)  That’s the law now — now. “

Biden cited significant wins realized with the new law. He mentioned price of one of the drugs have dropped from 400 to 35, and other drugs had price reductions between 40-80%.

Just last month, Biden&Sanders called out LLY and NVO specifically

“If Novo Nordisk and other pharmaceutical companies refuse to substantially lower prescription drug prices in our country and end their greed, we will do everything within our power to end it for them. Novo Nordisk must substantially reduce the price of Ozempic and Wegovy,”

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biden-says-novo-nordisk-must-cut-prices-diabetes-weight-loss-drugs-2024-07-02/

Seems like Harris&Waltz has significant likelihood of winning this election, they are very committed to cutting down the pharma companies' margins significantly. The GLP-1 weight loss drugs have already attracted attention in this respect and Biden communicated a very strong message for reducing GLP-1 drug prices specifically.

All things considered, it sounds like it's time to realize the LLY gains to me. But besides that I wonder if there might be a strong bear scenario for LLY&NVO, and perhaps other pharma companies in general. LLY and NVO are trading with a very high P/E which has been driven by the long term prospects of the GLP-1 drugs. If, let's say, there is a risk of the federal government enforcing price caps on these drugs in a few years time i think it will bring down valuations of these companies significantly.

I don't have much experience in the pharma sector, so i am curious what do people think.

edit: I don't get all the down votes. My goal was to share this information so that people can assess their positions in light of this news. If you think the news is neutral to the stock then it's neutral. If there is any risks, i hope this can give people time to react before the hedge funds fully adjust their positions.


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *