8:30 this mornin. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 431,000 in March, below market expectations and the smallest increase since November last year.
The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.6% in March, which was lower than market expectations and continued to hit a new low since February 2020.
Bloomberg Intelligence's chief U.S. rates strategist: The report appears to be enough to widen concerns that inflation will remain high, which could mean the yield curve will flatten further ahead of the CPI report later this month rise. Currently, the market is expecting a 17bps inversion of the 2Y/10Y yield curve by this time next year, and we see no reason to think that won't happen until the market has priced in.
[After the non-agricultural announcement] According to CME Group's “Fed Watch”: the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 32.3%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 67.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 0% By June, the probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points or 50 basis points is 0%, the probability of a rate hike of 75 basis points is 24.9%, the probability of a rate hike of 100 basis points is 59.6%, and the probability of a rate hike of 125 basis points is 59.6%. was 59.6%. 15.5%.
What do you think the future market will be like? What strategy should we adopt?
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