I was about 50% small caps (IWM and VB) and mid caps (VO) for the first 6 months of 2024. They went nowhere, so I pivoted into the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) in late June.
No sooner had I done so than small caps came roaring back, while big tech seems it might be heading for a correction. Doh!
Now I'm back to the rationale that put me into smalls and mids in the first place: valuation. According to Yardeni, small and mid cap indices have a forward PE ratio under 16, while large caps are 20.7. The Mag 8 have a PE around 30!
As investors learned in 2000, valuation-driven corrections can last years and have massive downside. I'd feel a lot better about a portfolio of modestly valued stocks rather than a few big names running on AI hype. On the other hand, performance chasing got me here, and now I'm thinking about selling low and buying high again simply due to regret of missing out (ROMO).
So go back to smalls and mids OR stay the course with QQQ? Thoughts?
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