I don't come from finance, but wondered if anyone on the board had taken a stab at the potential Paramount/SkyDance post-merger numbers for B shares? It's not clear to me (or many others) as to whether it will ultimately depress the B share stock price further in the near-term due to dilution or if it's actually better than the average shareholder realizes.
I ran it through ChatGPT (I know, I know…no one firsthand available to ask) to try and just get a sense since it's unlike most merger/buyout transactions I've ever seen, but I don't know if I'm even looking at it correctly. Depending on factors such as share “buybacks” (whether it remains part of the float) or amount shares are issued (current stock price up to $15), GPT’s estimations run between $9 – $15, roughly.
Would anyone with more experience in M&A or finance have any thoughts? Willing to crunch their own numbers or give their own predictions/ranges?
Paramount Stock Details
A Shares: 84.71 million
A Share Price = $20.10
B Shares: 613 million
B Share Price = $11.45
Total Shares Outstanding: 697.71 million
Current Market Cap = $7.6B
Deal Details
-$1.5 billion to pay down Paramount’s $12.2 billion of net debt, in order to elevate it to investment grade.
-$4.5 billion offered to the non-Redstone shareholders, spread across all the shareholders who elect to sell, on a pro-rata basis. Roughly $7.50 a share in cash, or maybe a little less (Unsure how to calculate/understand this).
-Paramount would then buy Skydance Media for $4.75 billion in stock.
*DISCLAIMER: I know we don't know the full details of the deal yet, all I'm asking is for opinions/experience I don't have and I make my own investment decisions.*
Long shares and OTM calls (mostly $12 – $15, expiring Oct. '24 through Jan. '26).
Thank you in advance!
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