TSLA: “Between two major growth waves” means “low growth” or actually “no growth”?


2024Q2

Production: 410,831 (-14.35% YoY)

Delivery: 443,956 (-4.75% YoY) but beating WS estimates at 438,019

Indeed, the delivery number had been declining for two consecutive quarters, yet it has beaten the market consensus, resulting to another ~5% pump in the pre-market.

That being said, no growth is “still” acceptable? LOL ~ typical TSLA!

PS:Historical P/E (July 2023 to June 2024) goes above 100x today, good show.

Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Second Quarter 2024

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2024

In the second quarter, we produced approximately 411,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles. We deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, the highest quarterly deployment yet.

Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2024 after market close on Tuesday, July 23, 2024. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2024 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

Tesla reports 443,956 deliveries in second quarter, a 4.8% decrease from last year

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/02/tesla-tsla-q2-2024-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

Tesla shares jumped on Tuesday after the company posted second-quarter vehicle production and deliveries numbers that beat analyst expectations.

Analysts expected Tesla deliveries to hit 439,000 in the three months ending June 30, according to a consensus of estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount. The total number of deliveries in the second quarter fell 4.8% from 466,140 a year earlier but rose 14.8% from the first quarter.

The stock rose more than 9% Tuesday in midday trading. Before the report, Tesla shares were down 16% in 2024.

Tesla's quarterly deliveries fall less than expected; shares rally

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-second-quarter-deliveries-beat-estimates-price-cuts-boost-sales-2024-07-02

Tesla on Tuesday reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, as the electric carmaker's price cuts and incentives helped mitigate cooling demand.

Shares of the world's most valuable automaker rallied more than 10% on Tuesday, hitting the highest level in nearly six months.

The higher-than-expected deliveries data “greatly assuages concerns regarding softening EV demand,” CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson said. “The stock continues to ride a wave of positive momentum following its annual meeting in mid-June in which shareholders re-approved Musk’s 2018 compensation plan,” he said, referring to CEO Elon Musk.

—————————————————————————————–

Everything below this line was written before the release of P&D numbers ~

TSLA is going to release its 2024Q2 P&D numbers in the next couple of hours, WS analysts think that total delivery could reach 438,019 (vs 466,140, i.e. around 6% YoY drop).

In my opinion, 438K is still far too high based on continuous checking shared by a lot of non-WS analysts – which is supported by the data regularly released in Mainland China, Europe and the United States. The educated estimates should be ranging from 415K to 420K, implying at least 9% YoY decline.

Recall in January 2024's investor call that Mr. CEO was saying TSLA is between two major growth waves while no further guidance was provided (very tricky to be honest), does it mean “low growth” or actually “no growth”?

More information will be followed post the release of 2024Q2 numbers …

Tesla deliveries set to fall for second straight quarter

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-deliveries-set-fall-second-straight-quarter-2024-07-01

Tesla's June-quarter deliveries likely fell 6%, the first time the top EV maker is set to post two straight quarters of decline, as it deals with stiff competition in China and slow demand due to a lack of affordable new models.

The company is expected to deliver 438,019 vehicles for the April to June period, according to an average estimate based on forecasts from 12 analysts polled by LSEG, seven of whom slashed their expectations in the past three months. The EV maker is expected to announce the results on Tuesday.

Tesla has hit a speed bump after years of rapid growth that helped make it the world's most valuable automaker. It warned in January that deliveries growth in 2024 would be “notably lower” as a boost from months-long price cuts wanes.

Tesla's June China-made EV sales down 24.2% y/y

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-june-china-made-ev-sales-down-242-yy-2024-07-02

Tesla's June sales of China-made electric vehicles fell 24.2% from a year earlier to 71,007, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Tuesday.

Deliveries of the U.S. automaker's China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles fell 2.2% from May levels.

Chinese rival BYD with its Dynasty and Ocean lineups of EVs and plug-in hybrids, sold 340,211 passenger vehicles in June, up 35.2% year on year.


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *