Diversified way to bet on China-Taiwan conflict?


If you're currently invested in broad semiconductor ETFs, how would you prepare for a potential Chinese move on Taiwan? Would you buy individual US fabricator stocks (like INTC)? Hedge with a short position on TSMC? The supply crunch could make semiconductor prices explode in the medium term (I assume some of that risk is already priced in, given the extreme run we've seen since 2022), but the war that would ensue could have broader implications. Historically, is there justification for shifting one's portfolio toward defense ETFs ahead of time?

What ETFs allow US investors to diversify into B(R)ICS companies (excluding whole-world ETFs like VXUS)? Would you target specific countries or go with a broad emerging markets ETF? India seems overbought at the moment, but the future potential is obvious.

Finally, other than BTC ETFs and real estate, what's a good way to hedge against the risk of dedollarization and serious inflation in the next few decades? Would it make sense to look at some rare metal ETFs?

To clarify, I'm not inviting a debate on the premise or the likelihood of these scenarios.


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