A lot of FUD going around recently even though the market is still off its highs. I have been meanwhile finding some great gems that show great value, no matter what the market does. Thought I would share. My approach is all based on fundamental financial analysis, no TA BS. I am summarizing and writing this off the top of my head so some numbers may not be exact, but the thesis is fucking fantastic.
GNL – 10%+ dividend and at least 20-30% upside.
So Global Net leases is a REIT that was trading around $25-$30 pre-pandemic. Pandemic hits and everyone shit their pants because GNL has about 30% expsoure to office buildings, fair. But 2 years later, they have retained 100% of their leases, doubled their net lease duration, and maintained or increased their dividend. Right now trading at around $16/sh with a yield over $10. Like holy fuck how can you NOT invest in this? also, their office exposure is not like the random strip mall office, its HQ of corporations like FedEx, McLaren, Finnair (ok, maybe Putin will fuck the last one up, but their largest client is only 2% of revenue). I mean literally the company would have to lose something like 40% of its revenue base and WOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A 7-8% DIVIDEND YIELD.
PSTG – 23% Revenue CAGR, solving the world data storage crisis.
Ok, so this one was a Cathy Wood pick and maybe that alone is a reason to avoid it, but she does have some good picks. PSTG provides high efficiency data memory and storage solutions, basically solving the problem of how the hell do you build highly secure, efficient, eco friendly data centers. They offer both cloud storage and hardware for on site.
Anyway, although their stock has been volatile, the company has been quietly crushing it on all financial metrics: revenue, profitability, SaaS growth, economies of scale, etc etc. And compared to other tech stocks at eye watering multiples, these guys are at 4.5x EV / Revenue and about 20x 2023 EBITDA. With cloud, AI, VR, iot (put in all the other buzzwords) tailwinds their growth rate is more than secure and few competitors at scale are able to provide the solution that they can.
My own Semiconductor Picks and Axes Index: ONTO, LRCX, KLAC, COHU, UCTT
So the semiconductor gold rush is on. Everyone sees the writing on the wall that he who can make the most semis will win. But then you look at the valuations of NVDA and the shit performance of INTC and you say “what the fuck”. Others like Hitachi and Samsung etc are just as shit and burdened with other lines of businesses. The truth is the semi market is competitive, subject to commodity prices, and subject to component prices, etc.
Its like the CA gold rush: yes everyone wants the gold but not every prospector is going to win. But the guy selling the picks and axes and shovels to every Joe Shmo who got tired of his shitty life on the East Coast and said “im moving to CA” is going to make money no matter what. That is what these bunch of stocks do.
They provide testing, monitoring, assembly, and other shit that goes into a semi conductor factory. There are about 12 MAJOR factories going up over the next 2-3 years. The semi market will grow at nice 8-10% CAGR. BUT the CAPEX on Semi facilities is forecasted to grow 14% (so ya net net semi conductor produces are losing 4%). These bunch have the best growth, profitability, and valuations to capture that 14% growth.
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