PLTR is so richly valued, S&P 500 inclusion must already be priced in just as the NHS contract was priced in

Potential good news for a stock that has a very high chance of materializing can get increasingly priced in even before any confirmation.

S&P 500 inclusion is different in that it forces many index funds and institutions to buy in order to meet their mandate. However, given the uncertainty around PLTR I think that there will be an abundance of willing sellers to take profits from institutional buyers, leaving the stock flat or even down. Retail investors and some active managers are scooping up PLTR for this very purpose, I think.

After S&P 500 inclusion people will start to get impatient about PLTR fulfilling its valuation with new clients and growing earnings. Failure to deliver within a quarter or two will see the stock correcting back to the low teens justified by its actual current earnings.