Below is my personal forecast. No financial advice!
The growth of the U.S. national debt (although it seems secondary to me, as it keeps increasing steadily).
Debt from student loans has significantly increased.
Debt-to-GDP ratio is 119.47% (80% or less is considered normal).
The number of loans has decreased by -0.6% YoY, which strongly impacts economic activity, making growth nearly impossible. Loan delinquencies have increased by 31.11% YoY.
Decrease in existing home sales in the U.S. -> reduced purchasing power or fear/expectation of worsening conditions. Whatever it is, it's not okay.
The unemployment rate is decreasing -> people are afraid of problems and are holding onto their current positions (uncertainty).
The number of job vacancies is decreasing.
Unemployment is gradually and confidently increasing.
A sharp increase in interest rates. In 100% of cases, a crisis followed such sharp increases.
I believe a significant crisis will occur approximately 12 months after the peak in interest rates. Since, according to forecasts, they won't be raised anymore:
The rate reached 5.5% in July of '23.
July + 12 months = July 2024.
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