Warren Buffet less likely to survive sleeping than a Polish Jew in WW2 – death odds at 24.5%


These are the facts

Age Death Probability
Average Male life expectancy 77 4.9%
Warren Buffet 93 24.5%
Charlie Munger 99 36.6%

actuarial life table: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are both operated on borrowed times.

Every night when Munger goes to bed he's getting closer and closer to doing a coin toss about whether he'd wake up or not.

Warren Buffet is less likely to wake up when he goes to bed every night than a Polish Jew during Nazi Occupation in WW2.

We know that Greg Abel who oversees Berkshire's noninsurance business is his designated heir in 2021. Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Ajit Jain. They are all heads of various section of the BRK business.

However, just because someone is designated it doesn't mean the transition will go smoothly especially when you're not here to oversee it.

To this point, I think both Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger should step back to a consultancy roles before they do die bomb BRK with it, and oversee the gradual transition meanwhile assuring shareholders to ensure faith in the business.

The problem is, they aren't doing that and we are basically guaranteed to see a fuckstorm as soon as one of them dies.


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