With about $7.5 Trillion of US Gov debt to be issued / refinanced in 2024, I think most of that debt will be issued at 2 years or less for many reasons. If we assume that is correct, and that Gov Debt demand can't keep up with supply then short term rates will continue higher and long term rates may spike even more (who wants a 30 year bond at 6% if you can get a 6 month note or money market at 7%?).
In this scenerio, Utility stocks seem to be in a bad spot, but what other sectors will be hit hardest? Banks seem ok because they can keep all their reserves short term earning 7% (maybe? I'm not sure)
Please help me think of industry specific consequences… other than overall stock valuations decreasing because risk free money will be at 7%. Any input is helpful, Thanks!
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