OVERALL: Over the course of September, we saw the SPY change trend to the downside & confirm that change; QQQ confirmed its trend change to the downside (which began in August); and IWM only added to its consistently bearish bias by completing a H&S within its macro bear flag. Looking forward into October, SPY and QQQ may be trading within downsloping parrallel channels, while the IWM remains trading within the range of that aforementioned bear flag.
I closed 7x trades in September:
HE — swing long — +23.30%
CGC — swing long — +16.63%
WMT — puts — +16.46%
CELH — swing short — +15.07%
LVS — swing short — +11.84%
DXD — swing long — +9.57%
AAPL — puts — +4.57%
Here is what I see in the charts looking forward into October:
SPY
Upside:
– 1st Resistance = 343.50 (H&S neckline; upsloping)
– 2nd Resistance = 435.70 – 438.64 (gap window/fill)
– Major/Max = 448.25 (lower high TL; downsloping)
Downside:
– 1st Support = Current price (parallel channel?)
– 2nd Support = 418.31 (2/2/23 pivot + 200 DMA)
– Major Support = 408.50 (former parralel; upsloping) – Max = 396.71 (COVID TL; upsloping)
QQQ
Upside:
– 1st Resistance = 364.54 (gap fill)
– Major/Max = 375.40 (lower high TL; downsloping)
Downside:
– 1st Support = 350.50 (parallel channel?)
– 2nd Support = 348.50 (consolidation/pivot; minor)
– 3rd Support = 337.60/340.76 (gap + consolidation; minor)
– Major = 334.42 (8/16/23 pivot high)
– Max = 327.70 (former channel floor + 300 DMA; upsloping)
IWM
Upside:
– 1st Resistance = 179.86 (gap fill)
– Major Resistance 1 = 182.50 (H&S neckline; upsloping)
– Major Resistance 2 = 186.15 (lower-low TL; downsloping)
– Max = 198.72 (bear flag ceiling)
Downside:
– 1st Support = 170 (round + history of price reaction)
– Major Support = 162.50 – 160 (bear flag floor + round)
– Max = 145 – 140 (history of price reaction)
Best of luck everyone in October!
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