The current macro situation:
Our so strong economy is cracking left and right, rates came up quick in the US and also here in Europe (I am from the EU). Economy kept up really well, people had excess savings, yada yada yada. Now the market adjusted last year and then the AI craze (which I don´t wann discuss or try to “value”) happened and basically we reverted to the mean.
So here we are seeing that finally the economy is turning, China is bad, Europe is also starting to go south and even the US is seeing a slowdown now. The jobmarket is still a bit stronger than usual, but “great” jobs are already rare again, and in general the most recent numbers locally and globally are showing a turn.
Yields are skyhigh, the ECB might hike once more this week as Inflation here is not going down fast enough. And the markets? Well they are pretty damn high, today TSLA went up 10% again, thats just the icing on the cake.
Now nobody can predict if all this will again lead to a repricing, (which looking at all the data in the past is the highly expected outcome…) anytime soon, but what I can say for 100% is that yields are paying you again.
We already had a strong rallye and again the data tells us that in such strong opening halfs it´s much more likely we see a slower or worse second half. Overall I look at the total amount of data and it´s just a skewed risk reward that favors going into yield products and waiting it out.
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