Macro Outlook, Upcoming Moves


I have compiled a list of events( with articles) to paint a picture of the economy and was wondering what everyone speculates will happen from here? What moves will you make based on your outlook?

-auto loans starting to default
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/auto-loans/car-loan-late-payments/

-CMBS time bomb
https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/topic/cmbs-issuance-volume

-financial malfeasance (AMC/GME 87.86% float)
https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stocks-direct-registration-is-increasing-free-float-is-being-locked-up

-Inflation is barely slowing down, the FED has said they would lower rates for months now, and earlier this week admitted they would probably need to keep them up.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-policymakers-divided-july-over-need-more-rate-hikes-minutes-show-2023-08-16/

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/20/economy/stocks-week-ahead-fed-rate-strategy/index.html

-Housing market is garbage, high rates, low inventory/volume.
https://fortune.com/2023/08/22/housing-market-affordability-is-worse-now-than-during-the-housing-bubble-homes-prices/

-Weekly Bankruptcy filings have increased to levels similar to 2008.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-bankruptcy-filings-surge-first-half-2023

-Bond yields also highest since 2008. (Inverted yield curve)
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/bond-yield-hits-highest-since-2008-adding-pressure-to-borrowing-costs-7fef63a6

-S&P500 is overvalued by 19/20 metrics.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crash-spx-david-rosenberg-china-downgrades-2023-8

-Historical poor overall market performance in Aug-Oct. (I also did a short report on it, 2nd Link)
https://lplresearch.com/2020/08/31/historic-august-opens-door-to-worst-month-of-the-year/

https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/15z219r/sp_500_aug_oct_historical_performances/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=1

-Total credit card debt has increased
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20230808

-Increased student loan debt + repayments resume
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/student-loans/average-student-loan-debt-statistics/

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-education/2023/06/12/biden-admin-will-resume-interest-on-federal-student-loans-sept-1-monthly-payments-due-in-october-00101431
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/05/biden-gives-student-loan-borrowers-some-leeway-when-payments-restart.html

-Pandemic Savings depleted
https://www.fortune.com/2023/08/16/americans-savings-nearly-depleted-sf-fed-study/

-There has been an increase in the % of debt that is 90 days delinquent
https://www.pymnts.com/debt/2023/subprime-borrowers-delinquencies-up-credit-lifeline-grows-taut/

-US credit downgraded
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66379366

-Banks downgraded
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/21/business/sp-us-bank-downgrades/index.html

-China's looming, slow motion housing collapse. (Evergrande, Country Garden)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/country-garden-how-bad-is-chinas-property-crisis-2023-08-17/

-China Firms/conglomerates missing payments to investors, liquidity issues, debt restructuring (Zhongzhi Ent./Zhongrong Trust Co.)
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/17/chinese-asset-manager-zhongzhi-says-it-faces-a-liquidity-crisis-reuters.html

-China cutting rates and facing inflation/deflation issues.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66567085

-China coercing reporters to hide/not report unfavorable stats
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66506132

I am open to hearing counter-arguments to any/all events or articles!

Edit: Removed AMP link.


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