Ross still 35% below pre-pandemic levels. Worth a look as re-opening, recession-hedge play?


Before pandemic Ross was at $123. Today it is trading at $91.

  • 18.7 p/e ratio and 1.25% dividend.
  • Compared to Macy's (5.89 pe, no dividend) and Kohl's (9.79 pe, 1.61% dividend)

Some cause for optimism:

  • WSJ predicts the supply chain issues will benefit discount stores, giving them lots of inventory to buy at cheap prices.
  • Morningstars: “Ross should be relatively well-insulated against digital rivals, considering its differentiated store experience and operational efficiency (which fuels its competitive prices).”
  • If we go into a recession Ross should perform relatively well.

Some cons:

  • Morningstars: Rising labor costs can strain margins, with asymmetric pressure relative to online rivals considering Ross' need to maintain in-store staff.

  • “Digital sellers are building distribution leverage, easing returns, and pricing aggressively, necessitating continued cost containment to fuel low prices while maintaining margins (particularly as the pandemic may increase e-commerce adoption long term).”

I know next to nothing about the retail or discount retail space. This seems like a good investment but this might be one of those “too good to be true” things where I'm missing something. Love to hear your thoughts.


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