I’d appreciate serious responses here.
UPST has gone from $13 to $53 in the past few months.
On the macro side, rate hikes are still anticipated. Even if the market is pricing in rate cuts in the near future, I can not make sense of this stock basically 4xing.
On the company-specific side, there are a few factors: high short interest, positive AI sentiment, sale of $4B worth of loans. But again, these do not quantify a 4x jump in the market value of the company. Even if you somehow tell me it was oversold at $13, I say it is overbought at $53.
This is in line with the broader market movement as well. We went from anticipating rate, hikes, and fears of recession to market mania where companies like NVDA and MSFT and the indices are moving up. Yes, inflation growth is slowing, but we are being overly optimistic; the market is picking up without any substantial change in macroeconomic conditions.
Can anyone fill in the blanks? Yea, markets are irrational but we have been on a streak for many weeks now with no underlying fundamental change. What am I missing?
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