Hey all,
Thinking about the week ahead for macro events and I think the biggest data release is US employment. I never really know how to read this one because since the Fed has been hiking base rates, good news (e.g. low unemployment) is often bad news for stocks (because it will be used to justify more Fed hikes to slow the economy). It looks like the market is expecting US inflation to fall to 3.6%; do you think this print or one lower will make stocks fall over fears of further Fed hikes?
I’ve included the data points I’m monitoring this week below – let me know if I’m missing anything or if you would have a different focus!
MONDAY 3RD JULY
China Manufacturing PMI – expected: 50.2, last: 50.9
Germany Manufacturing PMI – expected: 41.0, last: 41.0
UK Manufacturing PMI – expected: 46.2, last: 46.2
US Manufacturing PMI – expected: 47.2, last: 46.9
TUESDAY 4TH JULY
Reserve Bank of Australia Base Rate Decision – expected: 4.35%, last: 4.10%
WEDNESDAY 5TH JULY
Euro Zone PPI (YoY) – expected: -1.4%, last: 1.0%
THURSDAY 6TH JULY
Euro Zone Retail Sales (MoM) – expected: 0.2%, last: 0.0%
US ADP Employment Change – expected: 240k, last: 278k
US JOLTS Job Openings – expected: 9968k, last 10103k
FRIDAY 7TH JULY
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls – expected: 225k, last: 339k
US Unemployment Rate – expected: 3.6%, last: 3.7%
US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) – expected: 0.3%, last: 0.3%
US Labor Force Participation Rate – expected: 62.6%, last: 62.6%
P.S. If you want to be updated when these data points get released, I send out a daily email at dailybullandbear.com
Leave a Reply