According to Barron's, The S&P 500 was nearing bull market territory Friday as stocks rallied following the latest employment report.
The market benchmark was up 1.4% to 4,280.49. It would need to close at or above 4,292.438 to enter a new bull market, defined as a 20% gain from its low, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Well 2 days in a row it went thru 4292, but closed under it. Michael James McDonald here has recent article, where based on sentiment things he thinks should go higher. His charts have quite the track record. We had 4 extreme bearish short-term buy signals in last year and have never been past midway to a sell signal, so he thinks we go back to prior highs, which are about 10% higher before going down. All we need is +.25% for an official bull market. I tend to agree. BTW, IWM way stronger today than SPY and QQQ. Makes some sense, the weakest part of the market in last year.
On his longer-term chart, a double signal, and in 2009 we only one signal, 2022 was quite a bit more bearish sentiment wise than 2009. Never in the Great Recession did things get as negative perception wise than as in the last year. All this lines up with my observations even though we use different methods.
I have written two articles here on /stocks in last 10 days that revolved around my many years of watching the market and having never seen so many people think a recession was a sure thing before, which is not how recessions have started before. Cheers
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