In a note on Monday, Lee pointed to broad expectations that the Fed will deliver another 25-basis-point rate hike this week, after having raised interest rates 475 basis points in the past year to lower inflation.
Markets are pricing in a 86% chance of a quarter-point increase after the next policy meeting concludes on Wednesday, and a 62% chance the Fed will begin to pause interest rates in June, per the CME FedWatch tool.
“This will likely be the last hike of the cycle. This is thesis changing,” Lee said, forecasting the S&P 500 could notch 4,750 by the end of 2023, close to its record high of 4,796 in January of last year.
That's largely because easing inflation indicators could pressure the Fed to hold back on its hawkish monetary policy, Lee said. Prices have been on the downtrend since June of last year, including key categories like housing and manufacturing prices.
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