FHN acquisition by TD seems like a great risk reward ratio

FHN was to be acquired by TD for $25. Prior to the banking crisis it was sitting at 24.50. The market was pricing this deal as a certainty.

Post-banking crisis FHN is sitting at $18.35. People are worried TD will try to back out/ re-negotiate the price.

TD’s CEO came out and said they remain 'committed' to the transaction. However, when pressed on a potential price adjustment, he stated the following, “well we've just initiated the negotiations and, you know, once the negotiations are finalized, you know, we will be sure to give you further details”.

So yes, the acquisition price could be negotiated lower. However at $18 a share this seems like a very good risk reward. After hours on Monday FHN’s ER will shed some light on how much deposits they lost. If the damage isn’t too bad, TD won’t have as much barging room to lower the price. Either way TD would pay more than $18, so buying on Tuesday or even pre-ER (for a gamble) seems like a smart move. At worst I see them being acquired for $22 a share which is about a 20% return.