We can all go back and forth regarding the debate on recession. Some say we are in one right now and some say it is not the case. Others say just wait another few months for the interest rate hikes to begin to take effect and then the recession will be in full swing. The truth is nobody knows. Not you and not me. Not even Jerome Powell. Hell even the person who invented the idea of the yield curve says it is not relevant to today's situation.
One thing is not really debatable though – for almost everyone it is a stock picker's market the last 17 months and probably will be for the next several months until we get the green light that inflation is normal (and fyi we will never see 2% yoy inflation – we will be living in the United States with perpetual 3%+ inflation yoy forever a long time. Back 20 years ago I was not even old enough to buy a pack of cigarettes but even I knew back then as a young lad that the best thing for the average Joe to do was to buy up ETFs because stocks are more risky. That is… not the case today. I do not hold a single ETF in any of my brokerage accounts because the past 17 months have been ridiculous and sold all ETFs in late winter 2021 when I saw the bloodbath beginning. Fun fact before I delve into today's stock pick… It was almost 21 months on the dot from the S&P 500 high in June 2007 until we hit the low in March 2009). If anyone cares to know – we are right now in mid April 2023 transitioning from month 15 to month 16 since our highs in December 2021. If history was to repeat, no that it will, that would put the true low in the S&P 500 somewhere around October 2023. Funny it does not put it in September – the average worst performing month of the S&P each year. Quickly – the dot com fiasco lasted 28 months (S&P 500 at high in July 2000 and low hit in October 2002). I put this out there because listening to the pros they feel the recession that is yet to take full effect will be more like 2008 than 2000. I personally think it will be a recession, and as usual we will be out of it before most even realize we were in one.
Now about my new favorite stock: UNH. With all things typed above why invest in VOO or SPY and have a winner here and a loser there when you can invest in a large corporation that is going to be raking in revenue hand over fist as the world around it cannot take the blow of high inflation among other things? For those that do not know UnitedHealth Group just beat earnings, like they usually do. I see this stock soaring above $600 before their next earnings date and probably going above $650 by August and then continuing to go up. Why invest in many other companies that cannot make profits during crazy times when you can lock in near certain profits during high inflation, high rates and soon to be high[er] unemployment.
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