I started investing during the height of the 2021 bubble. I didn't know a lot so, thank God I was smart enough to slowly ease into the market. I quickly found this sub and came to know the tickers that people were excited about – a lot of ASML, NVDA, AMD, SOFI, ZOOM, PYPL, TSLA, SNOW, SHOP – and a host of ARKK stocks at the very top.
Well, since the bubble burst and these stocks either came back to Earth – or worse – crashed fantastically, I've noticed that growth stocks are kind of rarely mentioned around here outside of the big tech giants, some of which represent more value than growth.
Outside of a few, the high-fliers are dead. I haven't heard a peep about ASML or, say, SOFI, or cybersecurity stocks in a while. Yet, under the surface, a lot of growth stocks have absolutely sky-rocketed from the bottom or, conversely, are still hovering around 52 week lows.
My points to you all are two-fold:
- Many retail investors – especially the ones excited about growth stocks – have been wiped out of the market. There's little excitement left for these stocks and, in my view, that's bullish. It means there's been a serious de-risking. There are people who contend that the worst is yet to come and that we've seen nothing yet – but I'd argue that the hyper-growth side of the market has already experienced it's 2001-style reckoning. I really don't have conviction that there isn't more pain to come, but it seems to me that it's time to start seriously scrutinizing these companies to find the very best ones.
- There is an absolute fuck-ton of money in money-markets, T-bills, and cash. People are bearish. I know we've just experienced quite a rally through Q1 but there are still many, many growth stocks that are down very low. We've had some very bad news recently with OPEC, bad jobs numbers, SVB, but – at some point – the market will begin looking past these things and start looking ahead. You could get in when it's more clear that conditions are improving – likely the safer bet – or you could start really digging to find potential value in the broken dreams of 2022 to catch the most upside.
I personally was never interested in the vast majority of stocks regularly brought up in this sub; I like to focus on semiconductors, and mostly not the names mentioned here. That being said, I'm seeing some tickers that are beginning to pique my interest: SOFI, DDOG, ENPH, WOLF, INVZ, CRWD, are a few. I've only opened small positions in a few of these because I'm a pretty cautious investor, but I'll be looking to add if entry points become even more attractive.
In sum, I contend that it might be time start getting excited for hyper-growth again during a time where it seems like everybody hates these stocks and there's a ton of money parked in cash. I'd be curious to see what people think.
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