Disclaimer: I'm long on PEI. I'm not a financial advisor and this isn't investment advice. The market risks of any stock mean you can lose a substantive portion (or all!) of your investment.These are just my casual musings and you accept the risks of acting or not acting on this post.
PREIT (NYSE:PEI) is a small-cap commercial real estate owner with a focus in malls and shopping centers in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Hedge funds have been circling this company since the pandemic and have made boatloads shorting the stock, but surprise blowout earnings threaten to spark a short squeeze this week.
This sector of the real estate sector was among those areas of the economy hardest hit by the pandemic, tanking stock prices. Smelling blood in the air, hedge funds quickly beganshorting the stocks of commercial real estate companies. Nevertheless, the sector began to recover at the beginning of last year and prices rose steadily. PREIT, however, had entered the pandemic with a large amount of debt and risked defaulting. So while the stock prices of larger competitors like SPG and MAC grew throughout the year, PREIT resumed a downward trend in June and has remained incredibly under-priced.
Month after month, investors have patiently awaited PREIT's financial recovery, refusing to sell their stake in the company's valuable real estate holdings for the paltry price offered byWall Street. At the same time, hedge funds have continued to circle and, as their strategy has paid off, have grown complacent. Last month, the short ratio broke the 20% barrier, flagging the company as a potential short squeeze opportunity. As of March 14, fintel.io is reporting a 22.93% short ratio and 34.39 days (more than a month!!) to cover. But those figures hide so-called exempt short trades; FINRA reports that when including exempt trades, PEI hit a stunning short ratio of 67.63% (!!!) on March 14.
The same day, after market close, PREIT reported fourth quarter earnings. And these results were incredible. Some highlights:
- Q4 revenues up 28%
- Operating expenses DOWN 14%
- Core Mall leased space at 94.3%
- Core Mall sales per sq ft continued growing in January, hitting $614 (VERY productive)
But most importantly, PREIT is now reporting positive funds from operations, meaning it can pay down debt to improve its financial position and improve productivity. This means the hedge funds that have placed millions in shorts (some roughly $13 million at 21% short) now stand to lose that money to shareholders in the coming days.
Having watched days to cover rise parabolically the past few weeks, I think this one will get bloody. That's because of the value of the underlying assets and its improving performance, as shown in the metrics below (as according to Financial Modelling Professional):
- Price to earnings growth: 0.000001656710637
- Price to book: 0.000194528161
- Price to sales: 0.00009748585877
- Price to fair value: 0.000194528161
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