With the recent events it became evident, that there is a huge risk in the global financial system related to the rising interest rates.
Banks usually hold US Treasuries as a form of pristine collateral. With the great inflow of money during the pandemic, the volume has greatly increased especially in long term bonds.
With rising interest rates the value of these bonds has decreased. According to US-Accounting rules the value of these bonds does not have to revalued in the balance sheet, since they asssume to just hold the bond until maturity. But in case of unexpected events (like silvergate and silicon valley bank), they need to realize the losses by selling prematurely.
Usually the banks are hedged for this kind of risk. But the risk can not be eliminated, it can just be shifted to another entity. As far as I understand with interest rate swaps.
Yesterday resulted in the biggest selloff of 2 year US-Treasuries since 1989. Forced deleveraging could lead to further “run to the exit” situation, which lead to higher rates which increases the problem even further.
I'm wondering right now, who are the counterparties for these swaps? How are derivatives called and how can I find out, which entity has a big exposure to it?
I would like to short these positions, since I belive that such a large volume can not properly managed and can likley lead to a systemic crisis.
Leave a Reply