“Three steps and a stumble” rule, how many steps have happened?


Hi.

I hear that there's a rule “Three steps and a stumble”, where if the Feds raise something three times in a row, then a crash is imminent. How many steps have been made so far, and if they raise rates on Wednesday will that be the third step?

Some definitions describe each step as just rate hikes, but hasn't the Fed increased rates several times this year already? Hasn't that been three consecutive steps so far?

Other definitions say that each step is a “discount rate”. Another definition says each step is target rate, margin requirements, or reserve requirements. And then I hear it's got something related to the bond market. It's not clear to me what I should be looking for each step to be.

For the “Three steps and a stumble” rule, how many steps have happened already and what constitutes a step? Will a projected rate hike on Wednesday cause the third step? I'd like to know if a crash is imminent, thank you.


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