TLDR: $META 32%, $NU 25%, $CROX 18%, $NET 10%, $MSFT 7%, $ASO 7%
I have neither specific time frame for investing nor a concrete goal. Maybe being able to afford a mortgage for a house in 10 years lol? I don't want to lose the money I put in the market, so I'm trying to pick profitable companies at good prices, hopefully with a good possibility to grow in the future. I'm willing to take some risk, but maybe not as much as buying options.
I've been thinking, how to pick stocks, and what I came up with is I'm trying to give 2 value estimates — “optimistic” and “pessimistic”. Note that I have no idea how to properly value companies, but I read quarterly reports and try to make sense of the numbers, but mostly intuitively. Currently I use a google sheets doc where every stock has current price and my estimates, giving me an overview of how much upside and downside the stocks have. When I get a pay check, I try to pick stocks that have less downside, more upside, and also that don't skew too much my portfolio.
Now here is about individual stocks:
- Meta: my low/high market cap estimates are 300B/600B. Media mostly talks about metaverse being a flop and Apple getting in the way of their tracking, but I think its fall to 10PE was overblown. They actually spend more money on AI than on VR, and they also said that they have good results from AI used for advertising, so they don't see Apple policies being a major problem for them.
- Nubank: I actually learned about this company before Buffett invested in it. They have interesting tech. I'm a software developer, and I love the tech stack they use (Clojure, Datomic) — it makes me feel much more productive when developing compared to other, more mainstream tech stacks like Java or Python. Also, in Russia where I used to live, before the war, there was a similarly awesome banking service (Tinkoff) that I used and loved. After moving to Europe it makes me sad to see how far behind other banks here, even the more progressive ones. Anyway, my estimates are 15B/35B.
- Crocs: It was a fucking steal at 5PE ($50) in the summer. I guess it fell so much because of the debt and rates rising. But I still buy it even at $120. I think, with their HeyDude's acquisition, and good debt management they still have room to grow. My estimates are 5B/13B.
- Cloudflare: my estimate is 8B/30B. Quite a big spread in estimates because I'm not sure about this company. I mostly bought it because I thought there would be a lot of demand for it because of ChatGPT, and possibly other AI services that are free to the users but pricey to run, hence requiring a middleman to prevent misuse. I now see that Microsoft's newer GPT model is significantly cheaper to run, so maybe there will be less demand for Cloudflare. I'll probably sell it soon. Although they seem to be focusing on profitability, so, they might continue to rise.
- Microsoft: my estimates are 1691B/2150B. Quite safe, will most probably continue growing, but maybe not by as much as other, smaller companies.
- Academy Sports + Outdoors: seem to be healthy and growing, my estimates are 5B/6B. Note that they currently have less than 5B market cap, so my guesstimates say there is no downside. Not sure why I thought so, maybe they have good shareholder's equity and earnings… Anyway, it's not a bigger part of my portfolio because they might not be growing as fast as I'd like. But maybe I should sell Cloudflare and buy more ASO…
Anyway, curious about your opinion on this. Also would be interested in stock tips, preferably with value estimates and reasoning, otherwise, I'll fucking downvote you, you silly bagholder. Just kidding. Unless?..
If you made it this far, here are some companies I'm thinking to look closer into:
– RH — though maybe will be growing only once the rates start to fall
– RBLX — it's misleading that they don't earn money because they use accounting tricks to pay less taxes (deferred revenue)
– BLDR — growing, low PE, I have no exposure to real estate…
What do you think?
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