What is our current best guess as to when the yield curves will un-invert?

Is it a solid assumption to say “you do not want to be long equities or dollar cost averaging long into equities while the yield curves are inverted”? You would have to classify this by backtesting versus historical performance.

Treasury rates currently:

US 1-MO: 4.586%
US 2-MO: 4.746%
US 3-MO: 4.827%
US 4-MO: 4.937%
US 6-MO: 5.034%
US 1-YR: 5.032%
US 2-YR: 4.701%
US 3-YR: 4.404%
US 5-YR: 4.131%
US 7-YR: 4.047%
US 10-YR: 3.912%
US 20-YR: 4.094%
US 30-YR: 3.938%

When short term (3-month) Treasury yields are higher than long term (10-year) yields, it is a bearish signal that is almost always followed by economic recession.

The 10-year Treasury rate is 3.82% and the 3-month is 4.84%, for a spread of -1.02%. Since 1950 the historic average spread has been 1.51%. The current spread is 2.2 standard deviations above the historic trend. We consider this Strongly Overvalued.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/

https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_3_month_treasury_spread

https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php

The Federal Reserve will be releasing an updated dot plot (a chart that shows the projections of individual members of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for the federal funds rate) March 22nd. We're looking at a 75%/25% split in estimations (FedWatch futures) between a .25bps and .50bps hike.

The terminal rate will most likely be in the range of 5.20% – 5.25% They are estimated to reach this terminal rate either by the March meeting, or the May meeting. Unless I am wrong?

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

At the moment, from what I can tell, anything above 5.25% is not priced in. aka, if in the June/July/September/November/December meetings, if inflation reading continue to come in hot and the Fed is continued to have its hand forced to continue to raise rates, the market will most likely have a negative reaction.

What would it take for the March 22nd meeting to bring good news that sends the markets rocketing? The current narrative seems that we weren't able to hold recent $415+ highs and many people are profit-taking under the guise of “the recession hasn't started yet/the impacts of rate hikes haven't begun to have been felt/tech layoffs are just in their first wave. This should bring us back to at least $390, and potentially start the next leg down.