The elections in USA is on November 2024.
Is there a real probability all the thing with fighting the inflation, hiking the interest rates and the possible recession are timed in order for a couple of months before November 2024 we have positive economic situation (like no inflation or at least no recession).
If it is so, I see two options:
– US government together with the FED are truing to make the recession (or at least the economic hardship) appear as soon as possible in order for them to have time to fix it by mid 2024 right before the elections. For this to happen the biggest interest rate hikes made from June-November 2022 should start hitting the economy in the next couple of months, which is pretty fast according to my opinion (I think they need like at least one year lag effect).
– the second option is they planned the recession to appear after the elections of November 2024. In this case the interest rate hikes should have a lag effect of more than 2 years which I think is quite a lot of lagging effect.
What are your opinions?
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