Is the market resilient or ignorant? I presume the latter.


The S&P ends the day only -0.5% amid a hotter than expected CPI report and with the last rally in the market due to “Disinflation” it might be in your better interest to notice the Oct-Dec CPI data revised upward as of last Sunday. The market appears to be pricing two more rate hikes, a pause and then rate cuts. This is also ignorant considering inflation has ran hot every month this year with little to no signs of slowing down, and on top of this the FED has made it clear more than once they have no plans on cutting rates by the end of 2023. The 1yr-10yr treasury curve sits above 3300, this is higher than the recessions of 1990, 2001 and 2008. Every investor and banker that has proven to be intellectually advanced enough to survive previous recessionary periods is saying the same thing: your blind optimism in the FED is going to backfire.


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