From January 2023 presentation https://www.kolibrienergy.com/_files/ugd/d30f6d_38ef0b28d37845afa7b4135e8cf69425.pdf
Current market cap: $160 mil US or $217mil CAD
Value of proven and probably oil reserves at $70 oil price: US $492 million (oil is currently $80)
Based on this alone it’s assets are triple current market cap. Only $16 mil remaining on the debt it’s been consistently paying down from cash flow.
New drilling in 2022 brought production to 4000bpd by year end. 6 new wells being drilled in 2023 at $6.9 mil per well funded by cash flow. Based on reserve data this would add 2000bpd production, but last 3 new wells are all producing double then what was expected and 16-H is a monster pumping out 1000 bpd (3x expectation). These 6 new wells could double current production, with all the cash currently being printed they will likely drill more then planned. Drilling the next one starts in March.
Cost to produce $26.06 per barrel, at $80 oil they are netting $54 per barrel.
At current 4000bpd x356 days x$54 = $78.8 mil USD cash flow almost half current market cap
At 6000bpd, minimum expected 2023 exit rate with 6 new wells x365 x$54 = $118.3 mil cash flow
If new wells continue to exceed like the last 3, you do the math.
With current value of assets and current cash flow this stock should be $25 today.
Management and insiders own 25 million of the 35 million float. Liquidity is low this doesn’t get a ton of volume.
Now the big kicker, announced today is that there’s been a lingering illegal short position with millions of failed to deliver shorted shares in circulation. Authorities are involved and the shorts will be forced to cover. This surge of buying will be the catalyst to bring this to $25 quickly and beyond if this squeezes. Link to article here https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/shareholder-exposes-short-seller-manipulation-in-shares-of-kolibri-energy-829639374.html
Position: 4000 shares
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