How are we not in a recession? What are stocks hiding?

If you had asked me 6 months ago if we would be in a full blown recession right now in February I would have said “100% absolutely”. 75 basis point hike after 75 basis point hike, and yeah we only raised raised by 50, then 25 basis points recently. Still – even 6 months ago the writing was on the wall that big tech layoffs were coming, and today you need not look very far to see https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/tech-layoffs-microsoft-amazon-meta-others-have-cut-more-than-60000.html.

Why is my VOO in my portfolio not down another 25%? Why is it that every single one of my friends, who all make between $60k-$100k are all spending on credit cards like crazy, hell EVERYONE including me has some credit card debt and I live frugally https://www.cnbc.com/select/us-credit-card-debt-hits-all-time-high/. The sharp increase we saw in oil prices in early/mid 2022 did not do much damage. J Powell trying to get inflation under control probably likewise will not do much damage.

Is there going to be a recession? I am really good at stock picking, but looking at the forest and not the trees sometimes is hard for me. What am I missing? Is it that Q1 and Q2 numbers need to come out this year to prove we are in a recession? Everyone is spending like crazy, going on vacations they cannot afford and just putting it on credit cards. I called my bank last week to get a quote for a car loan and they said to me “As of last Monday we no longer do car loans.” My head is spinning. I know the market is forward looking, but the market cannot possibly be up as high as it is right now come end of June 2023 – if it is, or even higher, I will second guess everything in life going forward.

My food for thought: Q1 reports come out in the next several weeks and we just before that time see how up a creek companies actually are. It is revealed that the job cuts were to soften the blow of how bad many companies are doing right now. People hope for a speedy recovery, while J Powell just keeps raising rates by 25 basis points, maybe even throwing another 50 basis points here and there. Q2 reports come out and things are even shittier than before – markets begin to tank (slowly) similar to 2009. We have a recession that goes into 2024 and once everyone, myself included, thinks the sky is falling, the market begins to slowly creep back up and we all go on with life.